The daily quota for visitors to Macau quarantine stations through Hong Kong could be limited to 3,000 people in the early stages of the proposed inter-place travel bubble, according to a Monday memo from broker Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
Still, such a tally could “increase 13%” on the number of visitors Macau experienced in the first five months of the year, said a note from analysts Vitali Umanski, Louis Lee and Kelsey states.
“Hong Kong-Macao daily bus and ferry travel and per travel capacity are likely to be restricted,” the note read.
“In a normal year, Hong Kong residents contributed about 20% of Macau visits and about 15% to 20% of Macau’s annual gross revenue from gaming,” the memo suggested.
Currently, travel bubbles with Macau are mostly quarantine-free travel bubbles formed only in mainland China.
Media reports say the quarantine-free Macau travel bubble with Hong Kong could come as early as the second week of July, even with other restrictions, if there are no new COVID-19 cases in the country in the coming weeks.
Neither Hong Kong nor Macau authorities have confirmed such a schedule.
Sanford Bernstein said the bubble would start in mid-July. “We expect the July GGR to fall from the low 50% range compared to July 2019.” This would still represent a sequential 50% improvement over June this year, the agency added.
The Macau government has already explained that under these plans, special conditions will apply to all visitors via Hong Kong. These include designating a unique “blue” health code, testing for COVID-19, restricting accommodation inside the resorts where they have reserved accommodations, and banning the use of certain facilities requiring masks. Hotel swimming pools are also banned.
Separately, a Macau casino resort investor told GGRAsia that he had been asked by Macau authorities to quarantine visitors to Blue Code who wanted to play at casinos in certain parts of the game venue.
Macau authorities have yet to confirm preparations for game sponsors coming through Hong Kong.
The Sanford Bernstein team said: “Hotels are known to have a certain floor only for Hong Kong players, with the area of their rooms and casinos. i.e. converted junket rooms etc.”
“The Hong Kong government will restrict daily Hong Kong-Macao bus and ferry travel and implement quotas per travel capacity,” Sanford Bernstein said, citing Hong Kong media estimates.
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